Modern Vampires Global Presence 1

Good evening,
Between 25 January and 6 February 2009 I began, and led, a discussion on a major web resource board dealing with the possibility of being able to ESTIMATE the global modern Vampire population.

In the initial instance my proposal was;

“Using the “Drake_equation” and by substituting/estimating certain variables, could we make an “educated guess” at the answer to the question, “How many modern living Vampires are there in the world?”.

The discussion was partially productive in that it revealed, thanks to several very knowledgeable individuals, the pitfalls and traps in the use of the instrument.

Now, 2017, we have eight years of data, academic interest and studies, and general interest reports, from global sources and national sources to include. Perhaps it might be possible to attempt the “impossible” again…” 

Initial calculations, variables and estimates (2009)

The Drake Equation contends that;

The formula expressed as: N = R* x fp x ne x fe x fi x fc x (1+ nr) x fm x L

Where;

N is the number of civilisations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

Drake proposed the following values be assumed;

R* = 10/year (10 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy)

fp = 0.5 (half of all stars formed will have planets)

ne = 2 (stars with planets will have 2 planets capable of supporting life)

fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)

fi = 0.01 (1% of which will be intelligent life)

fc = 0.01 (1% of which will be able to communicate)

L = 10,000 years (which will last 10,000 years)

Drake’s values give N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 10.

nr or reappearance number: The average number of times a new civilization reappears on the same planet where a previous civilization once has appeared and ended

fm or METI factor: The fraction of communicative civilizations that actually engage in deliberate interstellar transmission.

I went further and proposed the following amendments; KNOWN VALUES: (at January 25, 2009)

The following facts, about our world population, are in evidence:

Population: 6,706,993,152 (July 2008 est.)

Population growth rate: 1.188% (2008 est.)

Birth rate: 20.18 births/1,000 population (2008 est.)

Life expectancy at birth: total population: 66.26 years

Source: The World Factbook

Thus I would propose:

VAMPYRE POPULATION

N (The number of M.L.Vampyres worldwide) = R* x Fp x Ne x Fe x Fi x Fc x (1+ nr) x fm x L

R* is the average rate of birth per year, worldwide (= 135,347,121.8)

Fp: is the fraction of those births that may be born latent Vampyre’s, per year, over the life of mankind (0.1% = 135 347.218)

Ne: is the average number of these persons that awaken to their nature, per year over the life of mankind (0.1%= 135.347218)

Fe: is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop this nature, per year, over the life of mankind (0.1%= 0.135347)

Fi: is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop into mature V’s., per year over the life of mankind (0.1% = 0.000135)

Fc: is the fraction of mature V’s that maintain active interest in community over their life span, per year over the life of mankind (0.1% = 000000135)

L is the length of time that a person lives, on average. (= 66.26 years)

nr: or reappearance number: The average number of times a newborn in a multiple child family is born where a previous V. newborn has appeared.(= 1)

fm: The fraction of these people that actually engage in deliberate communication of their nature. (= 1)

 

Thus;

N (number of Vampyre’s. worldwide) = 135,347,121.8 x 135 347.218 x 135.347218 x 0.135347 x 0.000135 x 0.000000135 x 2 x 1 x 66.26 years = 810,485

Now, while the methodology may appear sound on the face of it the assignment of the variables may be erroneous. This is the latest attempt to “plug in” revised information and data from around the world.

 

At this point in time, almost 9 years later, I am still in process of gathering population figures from media sources in different countries. I still think, sincerely, that we can make a good estimate given the proper statistical approach.

In considering the Drake Equation in the following light;

“The equation was written in 1961 by Frank Drake, not for purposes of quantifying the number of civilizations, but as a way to stimulate scientific dialogue at the first scientific meeting on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI).[3][4] The equation summarizes the main concepts which scientists must contemplate when considering the question of other radio-communicative life.[3]

Criticism related to the Drake equation focuses not on the equation itself, but on the fact that the estimated values for several of its factors are highly conjectural, the combined effect being that the uncertainty associated with any derived value is so large that the equation cannot be used to draw firm conclusions.”

(ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation )

 

The same argument/criticism could be levelled if we attempt to use the formula to our purpose.

A better approach, as I suggested, might be found in a purely statistical approach. To this end I have gathered United Nations global population information (valid as at July 1, 2017) and applied reported information from a British newspaper report quoting an American academic. (ref: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest … s-Facebook )

The figures represented in this report lead us to the result that the proposed maximum number of real living Vampires in the U.K. represents 0.02% of the country’s total population.

Thus far I have gathered statistical (U.N.) information and “on the ground” information from Germany, Estimated total populations from both the United States and the United Kingdom, and I have used these figures to make a test case.

img. source: World Atlas

In the case of Germany we find that;

Total country pop. 82,114,224

Percentage factor (as determined from English studies) application: 0.0227%

Yields a possible max. Vampire pop. 16,423 individuals.

Total reported RV pop. 2000 (Source: House Sauromatos)

 

So, the actual figure could, conceivably be, somewhere between 2000 and 16,423 individuals

 

Refining the information input

The early refinements from applying U.S., German and British estimates yield the following results. They are supported by the only relatively “credible” estimates and observations that I have gathered thus far… and that took some searching, believe me…

According to Dr. Emyr Williams, a psychology lecturer at Glyndwr University in Wrexham, U.K. there is a population of 15,000 real living Vampires in Britain.

Britain has a subculture of 15,000 Vampires

 

As an example of a localised population poll I chose to include this “Site Vote” from the website “I love Werewolves“. Cultural group figures are always going to be important in any type of study of this nature, even if we apply “variables” such as those found in the Drake Equation and assume only 10% of the result is accurate, for example.

“vote:

Be counted as a vampire! What region are you from?

Oceania (4%, 56 Votes)

Northern America (57%, 713 Votes)

Latin America (4%, 50 Votes)

Europe (22%, 282 Votes)

Asia (9%, 111 Votes)

Africa (4%, 45 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,257

See the current up-to-the minute populations of werewolves, vampires, and zombies.

Current world populations here. 173 RESPONSES

(Ref: I Love Werewolves.com)

 

Why vampires would have a population problem

15:30 27 March 2009, Health/ Life/ Physics & Math

Michael Marshall, reporter

Maths blog Punk Rock Operations Research points out a major problem with the notion of vampires, which believers in our bloodsucking cousins would do well to note.

Assuming vampires are effectively immortal, and that they can reproduce by turning normal humans into vampires, their population would explode. So in the imagined worlds in which they exist, what prevents them from over-running the planet?

Colleagues in the New Scientist office suggest that there must be a high death rate caused by Slayers and other natural hazards, balancing out the high “birth” rate or mortals converted by bites. Such a mechanism could be modelled using the classic Lotka-Volterra equations for predator-prey populations. Although, of course, vampires are capable of making prey out of their supposed predators….

 

 

There are about 5,000 self-identified vampires in the U.S.

BY Meg Wagner

NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Tuesday, October 27, 2015, 11:05 AM

“There are thousands of real-life vampires walking among us.

At least 5,000 self-identified, blood-drinking vampires — people who consume human and animal blood because they feel that they need it to survive — live in the U.S., according to the Atlanta Vampire Alliance.

Most of those people are otherwise “normal” — they are loving husbands and wives, dedicated mothers and fathers, loyal employees — vampire expert John Edgar Browning, who has spent five years studying the population, told the Washington Post.

“After a short period of time, I realized that they weren’t crazy,” he said. “At least, they weren’t any crazier than your Average Joe.”

 

The VEWRs & AVEWRs Studies

In a question of the surveys, the replies yielded a total of just under 750 responses by self-identifying modern living Vampires (after the total response had been adjusted to account for certain variables)

The total distribution, globally, of the surveys reached somewhere in the vicinity of 1450 responses between the two studies. This response rate yields an average response in the affirmative, of approximately 51.724%

 

Lotka-Volterra equations

The Lotka–Volterra equations, also known as the predator–prey equations, are a pair of first-order, nonlinear, differential equations frequently used to describe the dynamics of biological systems in which two species interact, one as a predator and the other as prey.

(Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations)

 

————————————————————————————–

So, to the figures based on the given estimates as a percentage of total country population. (Ref: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section. June 2017.)

United States                    Country Pop. as @ 1/7/17 = 324,459,463            

Pop. x 0.0227% (% modifier est. established by U.K. % estimate) = 7,365,230

Min. V-Pop estimate = 5000 (Ref: J.E. Browning) Representing 0.00154% of country population.

 

img. source: Commons Wikimedia.org

Germany             Country Pop. as @ 1/7/17 = 82,114,224 

Pop. x 0.0227% (% modifier est. by U.K. estimates %) = 1,863,993

Min V-Pop. Est (Ref. House Sauromatos 2017) = 2000 individuals which represents 0.002435% of population.

img. source: Planet Minecraft

United Kingdom               Country Pop.as @ 1/7/17 = 66,181,585 

Max. V-pop. estimate (Ref: Dr Emyr Williams) = 15,000 which represents 0.022664% of total country population.

Applying 0.002435% of population to 66,181,585 yields a pop. estimate of 1612 persons.

——————————————————————————————-

So, if we both accept, and add, these estimates together we get 5000 + 2000 + 15000 which equals a viable estimate of 22,000 individuals across the three countries.

Working with average figures once again, if we take 0.0227 + 0.0227 + 0.022664 that gives a highest average application of 0.02269% of population factor.

Working with the low end, 0.00154 + 0.002435 + 0.002435 = 0.00641% percentage of total population factor.

Global Population figure, According to the United Nations, as at 1/7/17 was 7,550,262,101

x 0.02269% that yields a maximum result of 1,713,155 individuals

x 0.00641% that yields a minimum result of 483, 972 individuals

I would submit that the global real Vampire population lies somewhere between these numbers and, as you might appreciate, with time, and estimate figures from other countries, the calculations will become more and more refined. The encouraging thing, for me, is that the figure of 810,485 seems to be, relatively speaking, somewhere ‘smack-dab’ in the middle.

Refs:

The World Factbook

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science … turer.html

I Love Werewolves.com

Atlanta Vampire Alliance VEWRs & AVEWRs initiative

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section. June 2017

House Sauromatos Germany

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest … s-Facebook

 

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One thought on “Modern Vampires Global Presence 1

  1. As I said, and in order to focus a little better here,

    In 2009 the discussion came to a close because there didn’t seem to be any way to corroborate the validity of the figures. With the benefit of 8 years of on-off research and deliberations I have now demonstrated the number range to be within the same parameters as I initially proposed by an entirely different method. Now, I will freely admit that two positives don’t always = truism but I am going to see if I can entice a professional mathematician into having a look at the matter. Refine it even further, until then I leave the thought with you that, “We are NOT alone, in a BIG way…!”

    Excerpt:

    Global Population figure, According to the United Nations, as at 1/7/17 was 7,550,262,101

    x 0.02269% that yields a maximum result of 1,713,155 individuals

    x 0.00641% that yields a minimum result of 483, 972 individuals

    I would submit that the global real Vampire population lies somewhere between these numbers and, as you might appreciate, with time, and estimate figures from other countries, the calculations will become more and more refined. The encouraging thing, for me, is that the figure of 810,485 seems to be, relatively speaking, somewhere ‘smack-dab’ in the middle.